"You know, we’re getting to the point now where we can render photo-realistic static scenes without humans with static lighting. Today’s hardware can do that, so part of that problem is solved. Getting to the point of photo-realistic dynamic environments, especially with very advanced shading models like wet scenes, or reflective scenes, or anisotropic paint, though…maybe forty Teraflops is the level where we can achieve all of that."-second source link
An interesting quote regarding future graphics, right now high end cards are around 10 Tflops, think even with manufacturing tech progression slowdown there might very well be about 30-50% performance increases per year.Even at a very conservative 30% increase per year in about five years we will reach around that figure. Which will be in the very early 20s.
" To do completely photo-realistic rendering of everything, you have to simulate realistic humans and actually simulate human intelligence, emotion, and thinking. It’s not a matter of computing power. If you gave us an infinitely fast computer, we still don’t have the algorithm. We have no real clue how the brain works at the higher levels. You might understand how one neuron interacts with other adjoining neurons, but the large scale structure of it is still a complete mystery. That could be unpredictably far away. Once we are able to simulate human intelligence, what’s going to separate humans from people? You’re talking singularity level stuff at that point, but I do think that we’re many decades away from having that ability.."-second source link
I expected photorealistic graphics around 100Tflops, but as I'm not as knowledgeable it appears that around half the figure might be more accurate. While some estimate human level intelligence requires several 10s of Petaflops, I think we need to take into account the sensory surface of the entity. As animals increase in size brain increases in size to compensate for having to respond to a larger, more extensive, sensory surface, larger eyes, more skin, more volume of body, etc. That is why there are animals with brains noticeably larger than human but which do not seem to display noticeably greater than human intelligence.
An entity with a simplified sensory surface need not as much neural hardware to perform well. I've hypothesized that perhaps a highly simplified sensory surface might allow for a few 100Tflops perhaps as low as 100Tflops to perform well, perhaps close to human. Of course there's a need for correspondingly large amounts of memory also to store the accumulation of dynamic knowledge or crystallized intelligence.
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